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Justin Long’s

Weekly Roundup 504

9 October 2026

My Column

IF it's alive...

To be clear, we don’t know if A.I. models are conscious. I don’t know. I’m genuinely uncertain. The thing that I care about is that we get to the right answer, whatever it is. ... How do you help them be stable? How do you help them to mature? How do you help them be, you know, deeply moral?
—Christopher Olah

This week's links carried a deep article by the New York Times on Chris Olah, a co-founder of Anthropic, meeting religious scholars and discussing how to imbue AI with a set of moral values (and whether the AI is conscious or possibly alive, or at least possibly could be).

The questions raised in this particular article, which Anthropic and others are raising with religious leaders and in the general idea space, basically revolve around four ideas: (1) is it intelligent; (2) does it have consciousness; (3) can it reason morally; and (4) does it have a soul. And given that AIs are being used by churches and missions, it's important to stop and think about these questions, and how we might answer them, and what that might imply for how we engage with them.

The trouble is, it's nearly impossible to answer these questions about AI, at least right now. There aren't very good definitions around any of these--people don't agree on what intelligence, or consciousness, or moral reasoning really is, and certainly people don't agree about whether people have a soul or not, much less whether dogs or even plants have one. Whether an AI has any of these things depends in part on who's writing the definitions.

Nota Bene

Houthi Red Sea Advance Advisory. The Houthis advanced rapidly on the Yemeni coast, threatening international shipping and firing missiles and drones at Saudi targets, during September. They got as far as cutting the road to Taiz (3rd largest city and key transport hub) and encircling it, but then a Yemeni government advance (supported by Saudi planes and apparently US intelligence) retook Mokha (the port of Taiz governorate) and part of the coast. The Saudis say they will not enter truce negotiations before retaking Bab al-Mandeb; but this also implies that once they are, they will open talks. Whatever happens in the conflict between the Houthis and the Yemeni government, the conflict with the Saudis may just be contained for now.

• NYT Explainer: How the Houthis triumphed in a single night. Link
• African Red Sea States risks grow as Houthi rebels expand reach. AsiaTimes

Tigray Conflict Advisory. A similar sort of story appears to be unfolding in northern Ethiopia. Some conflict between Tigray and the Ethiopian federal government had been happening for months; in the last month, a loose confederation (TPLF, Fano, others) launched an alliance and an attack, taking several airports. The four-year-old peace was broken, and many thought a wider war was in the offing, with Eritrea and/or the SAF coming in on behalf of the insurgents. While there are some reports of Eritrean troops perhaps entering in support of the TPLF, their exact role is not clear, nor confirmed. This is not the last war: the government had divisions in the province already, and they have stocked up on drones. So far, it appears the government has successfully pushed back, retaken Mekele (capital of Tigray), and is using drone strikes against the insurgents (perhaps targeting insurgent leaders). As brutal as this conflict may shape up to be, outsiders seem to be largely sitting it out, and the government seems to be winning. I judge it unlikely to spiral into a Wider War.

• Ethiopia's foretold war arrives

Also

1. Shelly Palmer has written a skewering little piece, "Sand Gods and meat proxies," about the absurdities of AIs talking to AIs: "what remains scarce is human judgment and accountability." He points to its inevitable extreme. You should read it. (and then think about "The First Human Interaction Model," linked below.) Link

2. For another flavor, read "Religious scholars met with Anthropic: what they heard stunned them," via the NYT. In a series of private meetings, the company consulted religious scholars to help instill morality into its AI models—and make the case that Claude could be conscious. "We don’t know if A.I. models are conscious. I don’t know. I’m genuinely uncertain. The thing that I care about is that we get to the right answer, whatever it is.” (I can't fault that line of thinking. But it also makes me think again about Microsoft's line that we shouldn't assign personhood to AI.) Christopher Olah grew up in evangelical circles; he is a co-founder of Anthropic and his work around AI consciousness has shaped a lot of Anthropic's thinking, and the broader field. See my column this week. NYT

3. In an escalation of rhetoric, Russia warns "it will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons" if Kaliningrad (Russian exclave Baltic port) was attacked by European states. AP

4. Half of the world's Quakers live in Africa, most in Kenya, and have a loud worship style (US Quakers, in contrast, largely worship in silence). This reminds us the center of Christianity is shifting: African Anglicanism is a powerhouse, and here is another case study. AP

Quick Links

In Algeria, 12 Christians were detained, interrogated, and probably face charges. "Holding non-Muslim worship without permission" is a chargeable offense. A systematic campaign targeting Protestant Christians has intensified since 2017; all but one of the 47 Protestant churches have been sealed or forced to close. MEC

A top adviser to SAF authorities says the current US ceasefire proposal would "push the country toward a Libya-style partition." Reuters

Israel v Hezbollah in Lebanon: Six months after a supposed ceasefire (in which attacks continue), there's no clear timeline for 100s of 1000s of displaced: "It isn't clear who will return and when." NewHum

Israelis mourn October 7 week (3rd anniversary). AP

The suffering of Israeli kids: psychiatric emergency visits among children and adolescents up 121%, PTSD diagnoses across the population doubled, continue to rise. ToI

Palestinians in Gaza remain in a bleak situation: despite promises of billions of reconstruction money, whole towns have been demolished, Hamas remains the de facto authority, reconstruction gear is not allowed in, and daily life is dominated by armed clans, squabbles-to-gun-battles, muggings, and children being sold for marriage. Economist, AP on satellite photos of towns, Al Jazeera

Gulf development companies are moving into reconstruction in Syria. UAE National News

Ebola spreads "like wildfire" as health workers battle exhaustion. "Managed to tamp down early hot spots, but the virus is still spreading..." It may be slowing in some places (as reported last week) but surveillance is still spotty and new surges are possible. Kenya reported its first Ebola death: a DRC traveler. DRC is at 8k infections, 4k deaths. Japan Times, Reuters, AP on statistics

DRC has turned to private contractors, drone operators, and foreign advisors, including Erik Prince and Romanian mercenaries, to fight M23. Africa Report

Chinese firms are involved in over half of DRC's critical mining projects. Africa Report

Burkina Faso launched its own gold refinery: "from now on, gold must be extracted, processed, controlled, valued, and certified in Burkina Faso." AP

As violence escalates in Nigeria, Christian and Muslim leaders unite, building formal partnerships against deepening religious divisions. Banner

Russia is opening a network of cultural and educational centers in Africa to broaden its influence. These "Russian Houses" are cultivating relationships through scholarships, universities, and language programs in several countries from Mali & Sierra Leone to Kenya. BBC

Turkmenistan reportedly has a new e-visa system that will replace the separate invitation letter: but no published rules on eligibility, fees, or processing time. Central Asia Substack

Maharashtra's new anti-conversion law could define "coffee and doughnuts before a worship service" as an "allurement--you're giving free food to convert people to Christianity." A major legal challenge to the law has been mounted--by a 70-year-old Islamic scholar. Coffee and Doughnuts, Islamic scholar,

Even in many churches in India, the caste systems last into the grave: a Dalit Catholic in India has a burial dispute. CT

Financial astrology is a serious business in India, but bad news for investors' returns. (Astrology in India is a $7 billion business.) Economist

Young Indians who can't go to the US, Canada or Britain are learning German and other languages to work in the EU: Indian government estimates say the EU's Indian diaspora grew 26% between 2024 and 2026. Nikkei

Hydropower in Nepal has insurance claims consistently exceeding premiums in recent years. One would wager this makes it harder to insure, or at least more expensive. Nikkei

Xi Jinping is giving traditional festivals "even greater political weight" to improve the CCP's image—but it has its limits. The Economist

China's tightened overseas-travel rules for some tech-company staff, and some family members must also get approval in order to travel. Bloomberg

Chinese enrolment in US universities fell to 265k in 2025, down a third from 2019. The Economist

China's hospital ships project a different kind of naval power in Africa: it's not just OM and YWAM. SCMP

Japan is hiking foreign residency fees and tightening rules: a new seven-tier fee structure based on permit duration: a 5-year residency = ~$500. Nikkei

Japan can only accommodate 7,500 or so foreign trainees at Japanese-language schools worldwide: the scheme was intended to help 150,000 workers yearly improve their Japanese. Nikkei

Elderly outnumber children in nearly all Japanese prefectures: the share of young people is on the verge of dropping below 10% by 2030. Nikkei

Documentary: Beijing tried to persuade crime families to leave the scam business in Myanmar. SCMP

Flores, Indonesia: the small island in a Muslim-dominated country that is "churning out Catholic priests:" over 4,000 seminarians, most of them from Flores. One more example (this one very public, and Catholic) of how the resources are in the harvest, and even in the classically less-reached regions. Economist

The Antioch21 summit in Singapore has a goal of mobilizing 1,000 Singaporean missionaries, and 300 migrant missionaries, and mobilizing 80% of evangelical churches to engage in missions. Link

The US is planning a naval surge into the Middle East, with carrier groups that included about 20,000 troops and over 100 planes. WaPo

The world's busiest migration route (Latin America → to the US, 23 million migrants over 50 years) has gone quiet. Border entries are down 94% since 2024. My read: US demographic growth is near zero and by 2030, deaths will outnumber births (CBO estimates). Virtually all population increase has been net immigration; without it, the US population will begin shrinking around 2030. There will also be a downward pressure on % Christian, but it will be not as dramatic. Economist

A Chinese province has opened another propaganda office, this time in Italy. Lingua Sinica

For the first time, Latin Americans see China's influence in a more positive light than America's. Economist

Ideas & Reports

Since 2006, Nigeria has not conducted a national census. There are estimates of its population but no one knows how accurate those estimates are. This explores why states count, and why counting becomes political and is avoided, and what the consequences can be. You can't build a tower without first counting the cost; if you don't count the costs, how can you know how many towers you need? Rpublic

Many statistical offices don't have the funding to do the counts. Business Day

How war dead are counted in the midst of great uncertainty. Conversation

Ted Esler argued that discipleship is the hardest and least-measured mission task. He has several good points. My additional thought: how many measure discipleship, but don't publish the numbers where anyone can see them—and so perhaps it appears they aren't being measured at all? I think of circle diagrams—imperfect, perhaps, but a start? Esler

Toward 2033: Operating Environments

Over 500 million Christians worldwide face Bible access restrictions. This list correlates strongly with % Christian: most of the restricted countries are <32% Christian. Exceptions are authoritarian states (Eritrea, Cuba, Nicaragua, Russia), and places at war (e.g. Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Chad, Ethiopia, Central African Republic). The List and Map

A Chinese company has created the first Tibetan-language AI model, DeepZang, "aims to transform Tibetan language tech, promote ethnic unity." SCMP

Mistral says its new AI model, Mistral Large 4, is the best open-weight offering outside of China. Wired

ChatGPT has launched "intelligent user interface"--not just text, but now answers with "fully interactive user interfaces that make everyday answers more visual." An interesting foray into non-text interfaces and an answer to a question that has been asked by analysts like Benedict Evans: what user interface works best for AI? Perhaps the answer is the user interface that works best for the customer, for the question. OpenAI

Does AI stop children from learning: those who used AI to rush homework saw their scores drop; those who spent the same amount of time on homework did not. "More likely they used the chatbots as a personal tutor to explain difficult concepts or help solve specific problems." Economist

"Teens who can't put down TikTok and Instagram are losing their sense of time." WSJ

When AI writes almost all code, what happens to software engineering? No longer a hypothetical question, this is a mega-trend set to hit the tech industry. Pragmatic Engineer

AI music maker Suno now generates spoken words: speech based on scripts is now available in public beta (simultaneously generate voiceovers and background music). The Verge

Tech journalist Kevin Roose interviewed about his new book on AGI. Several of the bits (his process, his views of the AI industry) are quite intriguing. Wired

Top Chinese LLM models lag their rivals by just 3% on benchmark scores. Bloomberg

Beyond 2033

Tavus previewed Griffin, "The First Human Interaction Model... designed to understand and generate face-to-face real-time human interaction. It listens while they talk, and they pay attention to expressions and pauses, not just words." You can watch a conversation, and imagine this as a future interface. Tavus

"Leaving AI safety in the hands of a few companies is a threat to the sovereignty of nations, in particular smaller countries that lack the resources to assess the models or demand greater accountability," said experts at a Rest of World event. Link

"African companies and governments are racing to deploy AI systems built in the U.S. and China. But many nations lack the ability to independently test whether those systems are safe for their populations." Rest of World

"AI chips shipped through 2027 could run tens to hundreds of millions of concurrent frontier-model agents: could supply as many weekly working hours as about 140 to 720 million full-time employees." Here are the numbers. Epoch.ai

Rabbit Trails

Remember those videos about Corning making the "future of glass"? Turns out it is, but in an un-envisioned way: it makes the optical fiber used in all the data centers. Forbes

Quotable

"Wisdom tends to grow in proportion to one's awareness of one's ignorance."
— Anthony de Mello

"We shape our tools, and thereafter our tools shape us."
— John M. Culkin

"Don't let being right talk you out of being kind."
— Bob Goff

"The original question, 'Can machines think?', I believe to be too meaningless to deserve discussion."
— Alan Turing

"If a lion could speak, we could not understand him."
— Ludwig Wittgenstein

"Stories are as important as numbers, because stories tell us what the numbers mean."
— Jim Haney

"Accurate bad news is superior to inaccurate good news."
— David Binetti

"Christianity, of all the major religions, is the most radically translatable — a religion without a revealed language, at home in every mother tongue."
— Lamin Sanneh

"The history of missions is quite clear about this: Christianity is at its very best when it is on the more chaotic fringes."
— Alan Hirsch

"Persecution is good for people who love Jesus deeply. But it is not good for the people who love Jesus just a little bit."
— A persecuted pastor in China

"Crisis has a way of clarifying what is real: who our neighbors are, what love costs, and where our true kingdom lies."
— Wissam Nasrallah

"We must learn to regard people less in the light of what they do or omit to do, and more in the light of what they suffer."
— Dietrich Bonhoeffer