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Justin Long’s

Weekly Roundup 502

25 September 2026

My Column

Watch how it's done

Good chunks of the world, we know, are lonely. I've tracked that in the Roundup (Koreans dying alone in their homes and not being found, Japanese hikikomori, Singapore's singles, Americans "bowling alone," and on and on). I wrote a column about "do people know they're lonely" back in January. Now, I've run across a professor at Coastal Carolina University who teaches a course on the sociology of friendship, "combining the academic study of friendship with practical exercises in forming and sustaining it."

So, just because of the basic topic, the course is interesting in what it covers. But set that aside, because we're interested in something else: its methodology.

We have here an honors-level course on the value and sociology of making connections. This isn't a professor bringing a bunch of students in to "meet people and make new connections"--he wouldn't get as many takers for that. Instead, this is a semi-neutral context of learning academically about friendship and its power, influence, and value.

But part of the way he structured the course was to help students learn and observe by exploring ten Friendship Practices--a series of "experiential activities" that he designed, like sharing a meal with classmates, visiting a public gathering place, or going on a "friendship safari" (walking through the campus and noting where conversations begin and where students pass one another without speaking). People were set in contexts where they observe how friends are formed and how people connect. They are introduced to practices of friendship (like sharing a meal)--but in an observational, experimental state. The implication is: we're not here to make friends. Don't worry. It's safe. We're just here to share a meal like friends do, and learn what it's like, and reflect on why it might be valuable.

Nota Bene

The Iran war is a stalemate, but it could get a lot more violent, and wider:

a) Both the US and Iran appear firmly in control of their own side; neither will concede or surrender anything. Both make proposals, each calling the other side's "fantastic." President Trump articulated his options as (1) leave Iran "to rot," (2) negotiate a deal, or (3) "blow them up". Option 1 is least costly to the US, survivable by the IRGC; the ones rotting will be the Iranians on the ground. Meanwhile, Iran's Pezeshkian: "we did not bend the knee, and we cannot be made to surrender." Meanwhile, the Economist says, "America wants out." America no longer needs Middle East oil, and seems to want to pick up its toys and go home. Once it walks away, will it ever return? And without America in the mix--what will the Middle East become? There are three powers: Iran, Turkey, and Israel. (China is unlikely to step in.) Three options, Leaving the Sandbox, Tehran's conditions, Never Surrender

b) Hormuz Zero vs Reopen the Strait: proposals are competing around two ideas: reopen or route away. Hormuz Zero makes the Strait a "worthless piece of water" (perhaps) but is difficult (easier to attack pipelines than moving ships--but the EastWest attack only shut it for a week or so). Reopening is quick, cheap, but hands Iran influence and control at least in part. Which will win--or a mix? Qatar argues the Strait will never go away: it carries more than oil. East-West restart, UAE launched a new railway

c) Clocks are ticking for both. Ships are moving in the Strait (lessening Iran's influence), but not like the numbers pre-war (so not fully easing the pain). Rising fuel costs impact food prices and election politics: US Treasuries hit a 20-year high, and US mortgage interest is over 7%. Iran is playing a waiting game, probably, but it has its own clock: it uses 130+ million litres of gasoline per day, and only produces 120-ish million. Tick, tick... US Treasuries, US mortgages

d) The Yemen connection: The Houthis picked real estate that's valuable because its not the Strait. Air strikes are being traded (with 100s of casualties) but no ground troops yet; the Houthis told the US "we won't hit you if you don't hit us," and the US so far is out. About 12% of world trade passes through Bab el-Mandeb, which matter to Gulf countries more than Hormuz—is there "a reckoning to come"? Whatever happens: Djibouti may get the refugees. Riyadh strike, US sits out, UK, Turkey may help, Reckoning, Refugees

Also

1. The war in has upended Gaza's family structures: women now head ~1:4 households, and tens of thousands are alone in feeding and sheltering their children. LeMonde

2. At the UN, the World Evangelical Alliance denounced Israel's "settler incursions, intimidation and illegal expansion which contributes to the dispossession and displacement of Palestinians, including Christians." Evangelical Focus

3. The Sudan war is a stalemate. RSF's advanced in West Kordofan but the SAF pushed back. Neither can conquer or will negotiate. Millions are displaced and need aid. I estimate by January 2027 this will still be the case. Meanwhile Kordofan is now the actively contested area. SAF pushed back

4. The Myanmar civil war is a stalemate. The junta is stacking political party leadership with their people, making civilian government a paper-thin cover for the military. Will this get them better relationships with others? Irrawaddy

5. The war in Ukraine is a quasi-stalemate. Both can pound each other's capitals. Ukraine seems to have an advantage, but "faces a winter of air threats it will struggle to counter." Zelensky: if we can't agree to stop hitting energy infrastructure before the cold arrives, Ukraine will make Russia's winter just as painful. Drone saturation makes soldiers (esp. the international volunteer soldiers) long for days of trench warfare: "every day there's some obscene new invention to worry about." Moscow, Russia's Total War, Zelensky's Winter Threat Trenches

Quick Links

"The most receptive Tunisians are the ones on the move." Most are young men migrating to Europe: an argument for churches welcoming migrants and being a blessing to them as a missional activity. Clarity for the Nations

Seven Ethiopian rebel groups form an alliance to "remove the government in Addis Ababa," and seized the Mekelle airport. The peace deal has held since 2022 but many fear a renewal of full-scale conflict. Alliance Formed, Airport

Cocaine traffic is the "fastest growing criminal market in West Africa between 2019-2025; volume seized has increased 50% each year." Senegal's Dakar port is the nerve center of the continent-wide surge: and via Africa, into Europe. ADF

Pakistan and Afghanistan ("operations against militants") continues: Pakistani planes struck over a dozen times this year. Additionally, Pakistan continues to deport thousands of Afghans without valid visas. Strikes, Deportations

I don't think China will invade Taiwan, or that the US will abandon its support for Taiwan, but the $14 billion arms package could be the issue that upends US-China ties. NYT

China's Tencent set up an app so foreign visitors can use Visa, Mastercard, or ApplePay over the WeChat network, opening up tens of millions of local merchants to tourists. China seems to expect tourist money. Payment App, Tourists arriving

Next C-drama: my fake boss: Unemployment is a way of life for China's young. 12.7m graduated this year, but demand for workers has plummeted and their unemployment rate is ~20%. Large numbers are hanging out at libraries or "Pretend to Work Companies". Economist

"I went to Kyrgyzstan to find China's silent nomads." This story about "sportswashing and Chinamaxxing in Central Asia" is a splendid on the ground report from Kyrgyzstan, with lots of photos. ChinaTalk

Shwe Kokko cyber-fraud hub roars back to life after fake crackdown: the Myanmar regime and KNA used AI-generated images to fabricate the scale of the crackdown. "They know it's profitable, so they pretend to shut down while expanding behind the scenes." Irrawaddy.

European nations think Russia will "test NATO" within months and Europe is not ready. Denmark intelligence expects a hybrid war to divide NATO (not seize territory). Months not years, Economist video, Hybrid

The Other Hormuz: the Black Sea blockade is snarling vital grain shipments, forcing buyers of grain (e.g. Vietnam) to scramble for supplies elsewhere. Bloomberg

Nationalist votes rise in Europe: Germany's AfD party made stunning gains ("a disaster for the Christian Democrats Union"), and analysts think it is a preview for other countries. CDU disaster, Preview

Boundaries against immigrants are hardening:

a) Italy will ban veils in schools, limit foreign students per class. Reuters

b) Denmark aims to send rejected migrants to "return hubs" by 2027. Lemonde

c) Banished to alien lands: Trump's secret deportation deals. A big story tracked over 25k deportations from the US to countries "not their own" as part of a "show of force" to discourage would-be migrants and asylum seekers. Some were then deported to their country of origin, where they could face threats. Expats & ministries among them in the US: "please don't talk about us." Guardian

Ideas & Reports

GSMA Report (81pp): charting Africa's path to 1 billion connected people by 2030. Over 550m in Africa use the Internet, almost all via mobile. 900m are covered by mobile but don't use the internet; 100m don't have access at all. If they can use it, why don't they? GSMA

The Economist says so few large fields have been found that by 2040, output could fall to 31 million barrels of oil per day. Two decades ago, we heard "we're running out" and we didn't. This one is, "we haven't invested in opening new fields," and the timeline for discovering a field and bringing it online is such that it could be problematic. [The Economist]

The cost of the tanker is now 25% the cost of the cargo, due to the wars, which makes everything more expensive. Bloomberg

Post-Post-Apartheid is a very long, detailed essay on the rise of anti-immigrant fervor in South Africa as a political force to blame foreigners for the ills of the state. Ideas Letter

Toward 2033: Operating Environments

Amazon Web Services will not restore a UAE availability zone or its Bahrain network after war damage by Iranian strikes. Reuters

Companies are working hard to improve the training of robots, but they "still can't take a water bottle from an outstretched hand." BBC

Anthropic's new Model Hardware Standard will give AIs a driver to operate a hardware device, like a microscope, or robotic arms, or ... Anthropic

Powerful states may impact tech where nations don't: California Governor Newsom called for an AI kill switch. Bloomberg

The AI buildout is about 3% of US GDP. Are other nations investing similar levels? Reuters

India is raising tens of billions of dollars to invest in renewables, energy transitions, digital infrastructure, data centers, and AI. Bloomberg

War-related oil prices correlate to clean energy and rising EV sales: Europe is up 50% where gas is $10/gal. But oil is still ultimately the most common system powering those Teslas. Clean Energy, Rising EV sales

"Chosen Brick" is Iranian spyware that could track the movements of journalists and activists. Advisory

Russians are being forced to install "Max," a messaging-and-payments app, as a "patriotic alternative to Telegram and WhatsApp." It is in fact a surveillance app with access to the phone. "We bought second phones to install Max while continuing to use main devices and preferred messaging apps as before... no one in politics uses it." Guardian

Is all this "24x7 surveillance" really gum-and-duct-tape? A Flock camera teardown: little more than insecure "Android phones on sticks." Wired, Another Link

And what about the Great Firewall? Claude Code is widely used in China despite Anthropic saying it shouldn't be, and despite any kind of firewall. ChinAI

Beyond 2033

Most hear "AI doom" & think of killer robots. When Amodei writes of doom, he cites "unaligned bot nets swamping the Internet"--or, Amazon and emergency services knocked off line. Others say the real danger is (1) bad actors (phishing attacks to biological weapon design), (2) bad companies (using hand wringing to keep their place), or (3) those trying to keep other nations from catching up. One idea: "doom" is a prisoner's dilemma. If no one slows down, there is some probability of a bad outcome. If everyone slows down, we might(!) avoid that. But if everyone slows down, and one person jumps ahead, there's potential gains over everyone else, set against some small and immeasurable chance of badness. Who wants to jump ahead? Real threats

Microsoft says we should avoid creating a new "silicon species" with the power to set their own objectives (and earn money and own assets). Is setting your own goals a measure of "it's alive"? BBC

The Global South looks at AI in a very different way: they are far more optimistic about embracing it. Semafor

Anthropic also has a new biology lab, as it ramps up AI drug program. Reuters

And the work of ~1,000 autonomous agents led to the discovery of what is described as a "novel enzyme system" that "may amount to a new DNA-editing tool." Amodei on X

Round 3 of smart glasses (and all their problems) is coming. Economist

Rabbit Trails

Copper topped $14,000 due to weak output from Chile (largest producer) and stockpiling in the United States. Mining.com

Quotable

"Christianity that operates as knowledge of the text naturally expresses itself in argument of ideas. Christianity that operates as obedience to Jesus expresses itself by sharing the Savior."
— David Miller

"Friendship is unnecessary, like philosophy, like art, like the universe itself... It has no survival value; rather it is one of those things which give value to survival."
— C.S. Lewis, The Four Loves

"By trying often, the monkey learns to jump from the tree."
— Cameroonian Proverb

"We overestimate what we can do in the short run, and underestimate what we can do in the long run."
— Craig Groeschel, but not original to him (see Amara's Law)

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts."
— Mark Twain

"The invention of the ship was also the invention of the shipwreck."
— Paul Virilio

"The world of the future will be an ever more demanding struggle against the limitations of our intelligence, not a comfortable hammock in which we can lie and be waited upon by our robot slaves."
— Norbert Wiener, The Human Use of Human Beings (1950)

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
— Albert Bartlett

"It's not the elephant that will send you home. It's the ants."
— Keith Parks

"History has reasons that reason knows nothing of."
— a pun on Pascal

"Only he who believes is obedient, and only he who is obedient believes."
— Dietrich Bonhoeffer, The Cost of Discipleship (Nachfolge)

"If everyone is obeying God's "calling" to be a missionary wherever they are, then God is calling 99.9995% of people to work among the 44.3% of the world population that already has the Gospel, and calling virtually no one (0.0005%) to relocate among the other 53.7% of the world population that are not Christians."
— Team Expansion

"Hope itself is like a star--not to be seen in the sunshine of prosperity, and only to be discovered in the night of adversity."
— Charles Spurgeon