The Long Page

Justin D. Long, ed. · Research, missions, movements, closure, church growth, problems, transformation, futuristics.

The Long View Newsletter: Every Tuesday, in your inbox
Our current series: a weekly in-depth look at one of the Top 40 Least Reached Places and the Peoples in them.

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Top Resources

Think Tank Interview: On the 86%: with Dr. Todd Johnson
Outlook: Uttar Pradesh, India: 4 page PDF, district by district survey, $0.99.
Outlook: Maharashtra, India: 4 page PDF, district by district survey, $0.99
Outlook: Guangdong, China: 4 page PDF, district by district survey, $0.99
Outlook: Sichuan, China: 3-page PDF, district by district survey, $0.99

Collected to Feb 24.

The most common mistake when forecasting exponential growth (and how to fix it)
Six conversation archetypes and group network structures on Twitter (Pew)
Guangdong: Factory life far from home leaves China's migrant workers vulnerable (CNN).
China: The Silk Road of Pop: a documentary of Xinjiang and the Uighurs
UK: Bangladeshis have overtaken Pakistanis in London (Economist)
Libya: On the brink of total failure (Atlantic)
Six things technology has made insanely cheap (Bloomberg)
Upsetting the Apple Car (Economist): The established car makers are most likely to win the race to build the vehicles of the future
The future of war is robotic: America has 20,000+ units.

Collected to Feb 17.

Demography, aging: In 1800, no country had a life expecting over 40.
Content Marketing Lessons: from 10 years and 41.5 million website visits, important lessons here
Matchmaking: Cupid in your network. Facebook Research. Important for recruitment, too.
Center of Christianity: By 2050, there will be more Christians in Asia than in Europe, last time was 300-800 AD.
Refugees: "Changing patterns of global migration and remittances." Pew Research.
Ebola: Why the projections of Ebola in West Africa turned out wrong. Economist.
Poverty: Women and Poverty, an infographic. UN Women.
Poverty: A measured approach to ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity. PDF, World Bank.
A strategy as big as your city: Key lessons. Good lessons here.
On 40 least reached places: Dr. Mark Pickett has two insightful posts here and here.
Sex: we should criminalize the rape of robots because of what it does to the perpetrator. Implications.
Social Media: The seven deadly sins of social media. Hilarious, yet insightful.
In a Muslim country: Why I love my Muslim neighbors, great story from a missionary
Warfare: What ISIS really wants: the end of the world. Atlantic.
Cars: Could driverless cars own themselves? BBC.
Afghanistan: Smuggled: an interactive travelogue of a refugee mother.
Afghanistan: "The Narco-State of Afghanistan." Diplomat.
China: Shenzhen pastor talks about the joy and pain of cross-cultural missions. China Source.
China: 6 facts about China's growing middle class. Globalist.
China: Urbanization with Chinese characteristics. Diplomat.
India: Delhi is now the most polluted city on the planet. Economist.
India: Selling the sacred cow: India's contentious beef industry & most lucrative export.
India: Open India: new interactive app features state-level data. World Bank.
Pakistan: A looming water shortage, after a blackout and Baloch rebels. Pakistan is a troubled land.
Saudi Arabia: Bulldozing Mecca for luxury condos.
Ukraine: 50 Russian tanks roll into Ukraine to aid rebels. CSM.
USA: More reasons to stay married: stable marriages more common among educated, high-income (NYT).

Collected to Feb 10.

Top 5 megatargets: Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Guangdong, Bihar, Punjab.
Bright lights, big cities: informative, interactive infographic on urbanization from the Economist
Afghanistan: China expanding its role, building dam, roads (Reuters).
Myanmar: to convert, you must first get the government's permission (World).
Nigeria: Boko Haram violence has displaced 3.3 million (BBC).
South Sudan: fresh fighting, and 2.5 million refugees (Al Jazeera).
United States: the largest ethnic minority is also its quietest (Economist)
Ukraine: the war is expanding in size and scope (Economist). 1 million displaced.
Yemen: the problem was never sectarian--it's always been domestic turbulence.
Urbanization: by 2030, 9% of global population in just 41 megacities (Economist).
Economics: China's workforce began shrinking in 2012, over 50% of India's < 25.
Tourism: China's tourism revenue grew to US$550 billion in 2014.
American megachurches: over 1 in 10 Protestants attend one.
Bribery: Dealing with Bribery in China, from a BAM practitioner.
Terrorism: The rise of the child terrorist (Foreign Policy)
Taliban: CFR report on its resurgence in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
IMB South Asia: Bangalore Prayer Guide.
BBC: How Christianity's Eastern history has been forgotten. Also Philip Jenkins' book.
BBC: Writing for mobile: in bite-sized pieces.
Gigaom: New Dropbox extension for Gmail, lets you attach Dropbox files to emails.
Wired: Flipboard comes to the web: see I think it's still better on a phone.
HBR: (why) 99% of networking is a waste of time.
CSM: Solar generators power up remote African homes, factories.
Engadget: more robot dog videos, and Google's newest bot. Imagine these as hunters.
Wired: A drone that bounces around disaster sites like a beach ball.
Wired: We can now build autonomous killing machines. And that's a very, very bad idea.
Wired: in less than 2 years, a smartphone could be your only computer.
Daily Mirror: what the world will be like in 10 years' time. Issue macro categories.
NYT: VPNs dissolve national boundaries online for work and movie-watching.

Collected To Feb 3.

Zyenep Tufekci: why Internet movements are easy to start, but lack power to effect change
"Since time began, people want to believe some of us have special knowledge of what is to come." But they don't.
Egypt: On Sisi's call to "revolutionize religion" in Egypt.
China even more serious about locking down Internet access within its borders:
... China Digital Times: China seeks digital control, from U.N. to CPU
... China Digital Times: Minitrue: China starts blocking foreign VPNs.
... Atlantic: This is getting serious: intellectual self-isolation in China
... Reuters: In China, VPN Internet acces tools suffer further disruptions
... Mashable: China tightens grip, but it didn't block all the tools.
... WSJ: China's Great Firewall gets taller
Muslim women open their own mosque in Los Angeles, no men allowed.

Many of the world's most-visited cities are also the least-reached, notes Christar.
New tourism report: 9% of GDP, 1 in 11 jobs, 1.8 billion international tourists by 2030
Infographic on global tourism: tourism up, tourism to America up the most.
7 Stats to Know for Missions: brilliant, simple, wise from Jon Hirst & Global Mapping
Why men outnumber women by 58 million: an interesting read.
Related: the reasons behind the decline in 'missing women' in Bangladesh.
Bad Stats: Sex trafficking is widespread, but the Superbowl is not the center of the problem
What Christianity contributed to China's economic rise. East Asia's massive urban growth, in 5 infographics.

Wired: 15 predictions for tech and design: fitness technology, "ambient intelligence," more
Infographic: the current state of machine intelligence.

(Relatively) Short Answers to (sometimes) Long Questions
Got a Question? Email me (or post it on Facebook or Twitter). Then sit back, relax, wait for me to respond--and see it show up on the Short Answers blog. Or, check the blog first, and see if I've already answered the question.

To Jan 27.

Mapped: distribution of Arab dialects for North Africa, Middle East.
7 Stats to Know for Missions: brilliantly simple presentation that digs dip into important trends.
FiveThirtyEight on the perils of mapping city boundaries (and demographics within them).
Barna gives us 10 facts about America's churchless. A useful snapshot in time, but lacks context.
Lifeway's research tells us 60% of Millennials in America leave faith, but 60% return.
Divorce is down in America--but marriage is down too, and cohabitation is up.
East Asia's changing urban landscape: measuring a decade of spatial growth.
Cuba: Youth build secret computer network despite Wi-Fi ban.
The power of research: to change the world, Bill & Melinda Gates say you have to study it first.
Oxfam created a stir with a stat, but the Economist says it's the wrong yardstick.
What Just Happened: Social media is mature, sharing becomes renting, and cybersecurity is big.
Your Digital Strategy: Shouldn't be about getting attention, but about serving.
Goodhart's Law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
If you're not failing, you're not growing (but failure itself is not enough). The billionaire who invented Spanx, more. Book excerpt.
Some blistering lessons churchplanters can learn from the failure of Target in Canada. Must read from Sarah Bessey.
Senior Christian voices in Europe are in a bind on reactions to the Charlie Hebdo violence. Economist.

Back to 02/03 edition, and more links.


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Concepts, Defintions

Sustainable closure
Unreached, Unevangelized, Unengaged

Strategies, Tactics

Where to go: a simple strategy for minor peoples
Questions to ask about your area: tactics

Essays, Longreads

A kingdom view
To reach a hard people
20 Tech Tools I regularly use, 2015
On disengagement and the unengaged
Multiplication by personal decrease
Questions to ask about your area
For 100 people, the end is nigh
4 types of people critical to movements
1 first step to make a difference in the world
The hardest of the hard peoples
18 things that kill pioneer missions
8 startup myths
The math of movements needs oikoses
4 problems with "the Gospel as a right"


Status of Global Mission, 2015
Christianity in its Global Context, 1970-2020
Contagious Disciple Making (Watson, Watson)
Miraculous Movements (Trousdale)

Our Resources

2 billion in 40 least-reached places. Global District Survey. January 2015, $10.
List of Unreached Peoples Prayer Guides, PDF.

Global Diagrams
1. The impact of Christianity on corruption
2. The impact of obeying Christ on corruption
3. Growth, population & Christianity, 1910-2010
4. The Evangelicalization of the Church
5. How Christian is a country?
6. Persecution not strongly correlated to growth
7. Doubles required for evangelicals to saturate

Think Tanks
On the 86%: with Dr. Todd Johnson On prayer strategists: Liz Adleta.
On member health: John Splinter
On Shoal Creek “proto-Movement”: Roy Moran
On CPM Coaching: Paul Watson
On Mobilization: Bryan Padgett
On Callings: Pete Errington

Cluster Forecasts
Persians. Turks. Horn of Africa.

Province Outlook
Uttar Pradesh, India.


Africa Inland Mission
Assemblies of God DFM
Baptist Bible Fellowship
Baptist Mid-Mission
Christian Brethren
Cru (Campus Crusade)
Child Evangelism Fellowship
CLC International
Christian & Missionary Alliance
Ch of the Nazarene
Ev Mission Society of West Africa
Friends Missionary Prayer Band
Greater Europe Mission
India Evangelical Team
Intl Mission Board
Intl Teams
Lutheran Ch Missiouri Synod
Missionary Aviation Flshp
Presb Mission to the World Navigators
New Tribes Mission
OC International
Operation Mobilization
Overseas Missionary Fellowship
One Mission Society
Soc of Intl Missions
The Evangelical Alliance Mission
Trans World Radio
Unevangelized Fields Mission
Worldwide Evangelization Crusade
World Indigenous Ministries
WorldVenture (CBIntl)
Youth with a Mission

World Newswires

AP / Reuters


Chicago Tribune
Christian Science Monitor
Globe & Mail
Guardian & Observer
The Hindu
New York Times
Radio Free Europe
Wall Street Journal
Washington Post

Long-Form, Magazines