Gospel Gap: Somalia

Somalia

Somalia is a small country on the coast of the Horn of Africa. The country sits in the grip of a multi-year drought; its government struggles against al-Shabaab; much of its population lives in absolute poverty.

Islam came to Somalia’s coast as early as the 600s through trade with Arabia. Ethiopia (and later Eritrea) preserved ancient Christianity, but Somalia’s identity became Islamic, woven tightly through clan structures. Early encounters with Portugal to wars in the 1500s; later, in the 1800s, other European powers carved Somalia apart—British Somaliland in the north, Italian Somaliland in the south, and French Somaliland (later Djibouti).

Italian Catholics brought schools, hospitals, and Mogadishu Cathedral, consecrated in 1928. But at the same time, Sufi orders spread, reinforcing Islam as the shared identity against foreign presence. Independence came in 1960, and the Somali Republic emphasized Islam as the bond above clan rivalry. Siad Barre’s regime (1969–1992) tried to suppress both clans and religious groups; when his regime collapsed, Somalia fractured. Warlords took control, famine spread, and outside interventions faltered—the era remembered in Black Hawk Down.

With no central state, militias and Islamic movements multiplied. The Islamic Courts Union briefly rose in 2006 before being toppled by Ethiopian and U.S. forces; from its remnants came the al-Shabaab insurgency. In 2008, al-Shabaab destroyed Mogadishu Cathedral. Efforts to stabilize Somalia have been repeated but fragile. The rebuilt constitution affirmed Islam as the state religion and shariʿa as the foundation of law. Yet provincial autonomy and clan authority remain paramount. Al-Shabaab endures despite outside aid—most recently from Turkey.

What of Somaliland? In the 1980s, Barre’s regime bombed northern cities, killing tens of thousands. When his rule collapsed in 1991, the Republic of Somaliland declared independence. Though unrecognized internationally, it functions as a state: with its own government, elections, schools, and markets, and a reputation for greater stability than Mogadishu.

Unsurprisingly in this context visible Christianity within Somalia has all but disappeared. More than 99% of Somalis profess to be Sunni Muslim. Islamic identity is “baked into” Somalia’s history. Conversion to Christianity is treated as apostasy, often punished by family-enforced “honor killings.” Public congregations are gone. Converts face severe persecution: a Bible, a baptism, even attending a gathering can invite mob violence, arrest, or execution—whether by al-Shabaab or by family. Yet, less visibly, Christianity survives–albeit as a tiny minority. Estimates place secret believers above 50,000, perhaps more than 1% of the population. Whether they have crossed 2% is debated.

People see the strong Muslim identity, and the weak government-vs-al-Shabaab tussle, and the terribly underdeveloped economy, and miss something key: Somalia is less a nation and more a network of clans. The future of Christianity may be less about whether the government falls, or whether al-Shabaab is defeated, and more about the turning of key households in one or two clans.

It may also have to do with demographic shifts. Today, Somalia’s population is about 20 million–and it is growing, rapidly, as one of the birthquake zones. Fertility averages about 6 children per women; by 2050, UN demographers estimate Somalia could have 40 million people. With births, droughts, and civil unrest, many of those millions are swelling the cities. Many of them are youth. So the cities are developing an urban youth culture which is not quite the same as the more rural clan structure. How the Gospel may seep into cities amongst young, media-savvy, connected urbanites may be very different from how it reaches into rural communities; which influences which?

Many of those coming to the cities are wounded, traumatized, and disillusioned. Many more have fled the nation entirely. The number of Somalis outside Somalia is larger than many know: something close to 3 million Somalis - well over 10% of Somalia’s population - are to be found in diaspora hubs in Kenya, Ethiopia, yemen and the Gulf, Europe, and North America. The “Somali church” by 2035 may be mostly among these diaspora.

Even though there are Somali believers, and surely Somalis before the Throne even now as part of the Revelation 6:9 cohort, Somalia is still a ‘gospel gap.’ The vast majority of Somalis have little to no access to the Gospel. Bridging this will require prayer, innovation, persistence, and risks. By 2035, the “base rate” outlook is continuity: a staunchly Islamic society of rural tribes and urban froth, an underground church at risk, and more open Gospel access among the diaspora. Should al-Shabaab regain ground, conditions could worsen, pushing believers out. If government stability improves—perhaps with external support—a cautious opening may be possible.

The future of Somalia may actually be as dependent on outside powers, as Somalia itself. Many regional powers (especially, most recently, Turkey, UAE, Qatar) are investing resources into Somalia again. If they can stabilize parts of Somalia and push back on al-Shabaab, then the future of Somalia may actually be more positive.