A free Explainer · 5 emails, two days apart · questions to ponder, not to pass

North Korea: a government that will not readily fall

In 2016 I worked on a forecast of whether North Korea's government would fall. It judged a sudden fall unlikely. In five short lessons I set that forecast against the decade since, current to the end of October 2026, and ask what it means for the Church.

The lessons

  1. Waiting for the fall: the 2016 forecast judged every route to a sudden fall unlikely; ten years on the government is stronger.
  2. A system built to last: absolute rule for a century, power held by a small network, and a successor who may change little.
  3. Watching everyone: surveillance, detention and fear, tightened since, and where information leaks.
  4. Richer, and with friends: sanctions and famine did not break it; Russia's war made it richer, and China drew closer.
  5. What it adds up to: the long view, plans that do not wait on the fall, the hidden church, and doors through the cracks.

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Material in this Explainer was gathered over years of weekly issues of the Weekly Roundup, and from a 2016 forecast on the future of the North Korean government.