Plausible Promise, defined

We begin with a vision: a huge picture of something, a brilliant treasure beckoning in the distance. A common proverb is “to attempt something so big that unless God does it, you’re sunk.” It always seems like the most powerful visions are actually a convergence of two or three different kinds of vision: a dream, a Holy Spirit-inspired realization of a specific application of the dream, and plenty of “data” to go along with them.

Great as the vision is, they are often simply that: visions, illuminating the night sky in the distance, like a great fire on a distant hill. In our analogy, the vision is a treasure that we must seek. We may not even know what the treasure is, specifically. We may have nothing more than a map and a whispered hint of untold riches on the other end.

The next step is to ask: what will we do?

It may seem like a silly question, but there are in fact any number of things we might do. We might set out in search of the treasure ourselves. We might attempt to sell the map. We might decide this particular treasure is better left untouched: and so bury or destroy the map. There are always many things we can do in response to a vision.

In 1956, Loren Cunningham experienced his supernatural vision of waves of youth. Four years later, he and his wife had successfully created a new kind of mission organization whose goal was to send young people out on short-term mission trips after high school to gain a sense of purpose. It was called “Youth With a Mission.” Cunningham had created a process which he franchised out all over the world.

In 1991, a young student named Linus Torvalds posted a note on an electronic group announcing that he had developed a simple computer operating system that he was offering for free download. He invited people to use it, fix it, and extend it. They did–first just a few, and then hundreds–until today “Linux” has become one of the most popular operating systems in the world, driving a multi-billion dollar economy and the birth of the open source movement. Torvalds had created a product which he gave away for free, encouraging the creation of a large group to extend it (which eventually became a movement).

In 1992, having witnessed the horrendous effects of landmines, six non-governmental organizations came together to seek a solution. They realized the only answer was a comprehensive and complete ban. Together, they created the International Campaign to Ban Landmines. It was a small office which ran a decentralized campaign resulting in the Mine Ban Treaty of September 1997. The ICBL created a small office with a big goal.

One year, we told our four children we were going to travel to Nina & Papa’s house and spend a few months visiting our family in the north while we were on missionary home leave in the United States. Our children had “visions” of what this visit would be like: seeing their cousins, their grandparents, perhaps going apple picking, perhaps going into the country side. They focused entirely on the idea of “Minnesota.” We, as parents, knew that to arrive at this “vision” required actually traveling there. Would we drive? Would we fly? In the end, we opted to drive: which meant traveling in a van over highways for 24 hours from Virginia to Minnesota. It meant packing food, and items to entertain the children. It meant planning for rest stops, eating, and times when any one or all of us might be grumpy and complaining about the length of the trip.

Micro-missions are inspired by a vision, yet they driven by the choice they make about what they will do. They articulate this choice as a statement or product that is specific and measurable. That “statement” is what I call a plausible promise.

Eric Raymond, an open source social theorist, coined this phrase in his essay, “The Cathedral and the Bazaar,” which documented differences in how software was developed by big corporations (such as Microsoft) and open source movements. He wrote:

When you start community-building, what you need to be able to present is a plausible promise. Your program doesn’t have to work particularly well. It can be crude, buggy, incomplete and poorly documented. What it must not fail to do is (a) run, and (b) convince potential co-developers that it can be evolved into something really neat in the foreseeable future. (Read more about the idea of a “plausible promise” as originally drafted in the essay The Cathedral and the Bazaar.)

The Linux operating system was in itself a plausible promise. So is YWAM: itself a process more than an organization. Cunningham started the first base, not YWAM as an organization. Unlike the International Mission Board or even Campus Crusade, YWAM does not exist as a centralized, registered entity. There is no charitable organization or NGO of which all bases are members. Each base is its own organization: some are legally registered, and some have no registration at all. They are connected to each other through shared values and relationships. The YWAM Base is a “plausible promise”: like a computer program, it might indeed be crude, buggy, incomplete or poorly documented–but it can (a) run and (b) become something neat.

Swarmish micro-missions always begin this way: with an “answer” to the “problem” defined by their vision. A mission might be concerned with the unreached in the whole world, but their “promise” is to the unreached in a specific area. Or, their promise might be to help people who are helping the unreached: the Viva Network, for example, has a vision of reaching children but a promise of helping people who are helping children. Lausanne has a vision of world evangelization but in practice is a forum of people who are involved in world evangelization.

To draft a plausible promise, consider a goal which fits the acronym “SMARTER”. The earliest record of this system was probably by Peter Drucker (something like it is in his The Practice of Management, from 1954). SMARTER typically means: Specific, Measurable, Agreed-upon, Realistic, Timed, Exciting, and Reassessed (although different people have used slightly different terms for each of the letters).

• A plausible promise is specific. A functional computer operating system, a Discipleship Training School, an Internet Evangelism Toolbox, a pledge to missionary service, a trip to Nina & Papa’s on a specific date–all of these are specific kinds of things. Some promises may be specific products (like a book), while others may be specific process. YWAM falls more into this latter category: it is a process for sending youth on a short-term trip to find a sense of purpose and help fulfill the Great Commission.
• A plausible promise is measurable. You should be able to know when you have fulfilled the promise. Based on the promise, you should be able to write specific goals and milestones. Before leaving on our trip, I printed out directions and we put a map book in the car. Along the way, we pointed out signs to our children as we entered a new state: “Welcome to West Virginia, 5 states left!” In the morning when our children woke after sleeping through the night in the car, they asked, “What state are we in? How many states are left?”
• A plausible promise is agreed upon. It must something around which a core of people can unite. If you can’t find anyone to agree with you, then it is not plausible. My wife and I had to agree to share the driving and to help the other person stay awake when necessary. People will have to agree not only that the promise is doable, but that they will do it.
• A plausible promise is realistic. It has to be something you can really do. Generally, if it is specific, measurable and agreed-upon, then it will be. Not everyone in the world, or even in your relational network, has to agree that the promise is realistic: but enough people have to agree to build a team.
• A plausible promise is time-bound. It has a deadline. We knew we would leave on our trip at a specific date and time, and so we could tell how far in advance we needed to do things to prepare for the trip. Later, we’ll see how this deadline is used as a measure of appropriate speed: if Teachable Behaviors are too slow to reach the deadline, then they need Continuous Improvement.
• A plausible promise is exciting. It has to be something that gets people motivated, and willing to act. This doesn’t mean that the people involved have to be highly magnetic personalities. The goal itself has to be something that interests people.
• A plausible promise is reassessed. When the plausible promise is reached, then it needs to be reassessed in light of the overall vision. Some promises, once reached, lead to the disbanding of the swarm. In other cases, a promise reached may simply be discovered to be a “first stage” in a longer journey. Remember that the vision is often bigger than the person, or the organization. When one promise is fulfilled, another promise may be made as you walk toward the vision.

With a plausible promise in hand, the swarm knows what it is going to do about the vision. The next question is: what must it be to get to the finish line?