The 4/14 Window: are adults more resistant, or just have less opportunities

You may have heard of the “4/14 Window” before. The idea is that most people make the religious decision they’re going to make between the ages of 4 and 14.

Reading this, we can be tempted to some conclusions that might very well be erroneous:

1. That children are more open to the Gospel,
2. That by logical extension, adults are more closed to the Gospel,
3. And that, ultimately, once someone hits 15, they are pretty much “lost”
4. Therefore more evangelistic resources should be aimed at people between the ages of 4 and 14,
5. and less resources at those over 14.

Are these the right conclusions? Is this what the statistic tells us?

First, let’s start with the stat itself.

It comes from a presentation made by Dr. Bryant L. Meyers in 1992, who made an “eye-opening presentation at the executive retreat for the Evangelical Foreign Mission Association” (EFMA, which today is MissioNexus). Global 4/14 Day’s website goes on to note the “stunning graphic” which Meyers included, showing that “in the United States, nearly 85% of people who make a decision for Christ, do so between the ages of 4 and 14!”

The 4/14 Website goes on to say “it was unclear the extent to which this data held true for populations outside of the United States.” So, the statistic is US-only. We are told Myers’ presentation was later published in EMQ. I jumped over to their website, where I’ve long had a subscription, and began digging through their archives. I failed to find it, so I Googled Myers, hoping for a link to the article. I found his Fuller Theological Seminary resume which did not list an article in EMQ on the topic, but which did mention one published in the International Bulletin of Missionary Research 18:3 (July 1994). Thankfully, these are now available for free; it was a hop, skip and a jump to view the original article.

There, on pg. 99 of the issue, is the graph:

it comes from the 1960 edition of the Handbook on Child Evangelism, by Lionel Hunt. Myers notes it is backed up by informal research by Child Evangelism Fellowship, as well as some stats from Barna. (I ought to get a copy of the original book by Hunt. I’ll try and do that, to see the methodology. If anyone has a copy and can comment on the methodology below, that would be appreciated.)

The graph copied by Myers simply says that “of those who become Christians” (in the United States):

• 1% become a Christian between the ages of 0 to 4
• 85% between the ages of 4 and 14
• 10% between the ages of 5 and 30
• 4% after the age of 30.

Let’s dive deep into the USA-1970 period for a moment. The World Christian Encyclopedia tells us:

• in 1900, 96% of Americans professed to be Christians.
• in 1970, 91% of Americans professed to be Christians.

Rare indeed was the religious decision for Christianity that was not made in the context of a Christian home! In this situation, nearly family professed to be Christian. Obviously, in that situation, most of the decisions would be made young. That’s where the earliest and most frequent opportunities were! The opportunity to become a Christian came early, and not unsurprisingly, children took the same path as their parents and all their friends and everyone else they knew. They were Christians!

(By way of example, our youngest child professed faith and a desire to be baptized the youngest of all our children. He had not only our example, but the example of his older siblings. Our oldest child only had the example of her parents. The next down had parents + 1 older sibling. The next down had parents + 2 older siblings. On it goes. Far more opportunity in a Christian family!)

By 1990, the % Christian had dropped to 85%. This was caused in part by a large number of people defecting from Christianity to become nonreligious. Cultural trends were changing. Further, large numbers of non-Christians (Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists) have immigrated in.

Yet, we must keep this in mind:

1. As a percentage, America is less Christian today than in the 1970s
2. As an absolute number, there are more Christians in America today than in the 1970s!

America is adding 2.1 million new believers every year. Between 1910 and 2010, the number of Christians nearly tripled: from 91 million to 283 million. The vast majority of this growth is caused by births to Christian families.

What about in the world? Does the data hold true for populations outside the United States? On most of continents, the number of people converted per annum were about the same. Church growth was modified wildly by birth rates, defection rates, and immigration. There are no significant research studies on the adult-versus-child mix in converts, but non-Christian regions tend to regulate/deny the evangelization of children heavily. There are no reports of significant movements of primarily-children into the church. In all of the reports of church planting movements, I’m not aware of any largely under-15 movement. If adults were mostly resistant and children were mostly open, wouldn’t we be more aware of it?

So, what conclusions can we draw?

We have two populations:

a) There is a certain population who come to faith – and of these, most come to faith young.

b) There is a certain population who are not believers – and of these, most are in non-Christian families.

The data shows us that:

Where there has been ample access to the Good News, especially historically, the percentage of Christians is higher, but most new growth must come from Christian homes (because the higher % Christian means there are few non-Christian homes). These decisions will be made young because of early, frequent opportunity to make it. The adults who are “not making a spiritual decision” are either (a) ones who rejected Christianity when young (a small minority) or (b) people who were never exposed to Christianity at all. (See “When declines in church growth signal success” for a fuller discussion.)

When there is very little access to the Good News, the percentage of Christians is lower, and there are fewer Christian homes. But the rate of conversion from non-Christian religions is higher, approaching that of births to Christian homes, and most of those converts are likely adults–because evangelistic access comes later in life. Further, defections are lower because evangelistic competition must clarify the Gospel presentation and work harder at discipling new believers.

Theory: When adults are evangelized at the same rate as children, conversion rates are closer to being the same.

Most who come to faith grew up in Christian homes. They had a massive “evangelistic advantage” via daily interaction with Christian parents. “83% of those who make faith decisions, make them young” – because they have an early and frequent opportunity to do so in their families not because they are especially open and evangelized by the church.

Most who do not come to faith are in non-Christian homes and not evangelized nearly as frequently. They might go to school with Christians, and might even get invited to church once or twice a year, but they lack the “home court advantage” of daily evangelistic opportunities. Those who do not make an early decision for Christ in most cases did not have the opportunity.
This does not mean that, if afforded the opportunity later, they will spurn it.

Remember studies have shown most of our evangelistic activity is directed at people who already consider themselves to be Christians–and their families. Most evangelism is pastoral, or programmatic, and enjoyed by Christians: preaching in churches, special classes, Sunday Schools, Christian concerts, Bibles that Christians buy, Christian radio stations, Christian preaching on TV watched by Christians–on and on. Much of this is aimed at Christians, and at people who have already heard and decided against Christianity–but maybe one more offer might click. (“Maybe you’ve heard this over and over–but today is the day.”) Very little is aimed at people who have little exposure at all.

The result is fairly predictable. As an example, consider the choice of a car.

1. For someone who grew up in a car-heavy society, like America–their parents drove a Ford, their grandparents drove a Ford, and by the time they reach the age of driving they’ve had plenty of experience in a Ford. So they buy a Ford, even though their friends try to tell them about a Toyota or a Kia.

2. Now, consider someone who’s driven a Ford all their lives, and then they roll a Ford Explorer, and someone gets heavily injured. In a time of crisis, the Ford fails them and is no longer desirable–so for their next car, they decide on something different, and decide on a Volvo instead.

3. Now, consider the person who grew up outside of car choices, and only ever had a mule or a horse. When confronted with a car or a truck – what sort of considerations enter in?

It’s not a perfect illustration, and it can be improved, but I think you see the point. Adults don’t stop making religious choices when they hit 15. If they did, the character of new churches would be very different. Adults make a religious decision with every evangelistic offer that comes their way. They are more likely to make the choice they have always made, but choices can change (especially in times of crisis). And it’s clear some adults are choosing to come to faith.

What’s the key? Nearly every conversion takes place in the context of a relationship. Children come to faith less because of openness, more because of parental relationship. Adults come to faith because of a relationship they have with a believer.

The statistics tell us that 83% of those who came to faith did so in their youth–I posit, because they had an early high quality opportunity. They had Christian parents who they could talk to every day, ask questions, watch, consider.

Of those who did not come to faith – what percentage lacked a high quality model? Might they have made a different choice if they had?

Of those who do not come to faith as adults – what percentage, again, lack a high quality model? Might they make a difference choice if they did? Might they make a different choice, today? Might the percentage of people who make a choice as adults be higher – if they had the same quality of model today that many children in Christian homes had when they were young?

If adults had “spiritual parents” might they make “spiritual choices”?

I don’t think we should slack off offering evangelistic opportunities to young people. But I don’t think we should consider adults as almost certainly resistant and lost. I think we should not blame the “buyer”: perhaps, rather, we should consider whether the problem is the product the church is offering, to what market they are offering it, and the way it makes the offer.