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A simple safety index based on the idea of par

06 Sep 2013
 

Which districts in the world are “safe” and which are “dangerous”?

Safety, of course, is relative. In thinking about this, I’m returning to an index format I’ve used quite a bit, which is based on the idea of “par.”

I don’t understand a lot about golf, but I do get the basic idea of “par” or “average.” Being “under par” in golf means it takes you fewer swings of the golf club to get the ball in the hole than, on average, other players. So, for example, if “par” is 5 strokes for a specific hole, and you get to the hole in 4, then you are “better” than par.

We can use a similar idea when looking at the idea of safe districts. All of us have different ideas about what is “average safety,” of course, and that’s one of the challenges – but the idea of a par index is whether this district is safer, on average, than most districts around the world.

The index I’m using will run roughly like this:

+3 … Very safe, much safer than most places, little chance of danger to life/limb? (Think Singapore.)

+2 … Pretty safe, little danger. Think of your typical megacity, perhaps?

+1 … Mostly safe. Think of a pretty clean megacity or region with perhaps a darker underbelly.

0 … “Average.”

-1 … Definite possibility of getting into unsafe areas, perhaps some organized crime. You have to be careful.

-2 … Stronger than average chance that danger will come hunting you.

-3 … Very dangerous, risking life and limb to go here (Somalia, some parts of Afghanistan/Pakistan, parts of Iran, etc).

How would you improve on this index? Is it useful?

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