Ever hear someone talking about how persecution is coming to the United States – how soon Christians will be forced underground? Ever hear it said with a tone of anticipation: “I can’t wait for the good new days when we’ll be hunted and forced into hiding”? (Well, perhaps not quite those words.)

I have traveled and lived in countries where such persecution is a reality. I generally think any anticipation is really enjoyment of the “thrill” of the idea of persecution rather than the actual experience. Fear may be fun in the short range (witness the crazy people who ride insane roller coasters or who go to horror movies) but fear lived day in and day out in the long run just isn’t sustainable or enjoyable.

However, let’s ask the question: is persecution in America actually possible? Well, just about anything’s possible, given the right circumstances. What are those circumstances, and are they probable?

First, we need to define what the expected level of persecution is. There were intense persecutions under the Romans in which they attempted to wipe out Christianity, or at least cripple it (although most of those persecutions were in fact pretty half-hearted). Hitler persecuted the Jews and tried to obliterate them, or some of the ethnic genocides (e.g. Rwanda, Burundi, etc.) or the Stalinist purges. Most of the countries that persecute Christians do not do it to that level. In China, for example, persecution is very uneven–in some places, Christians flourish and are very public, whereas in others they are jailed–but while believers in China have been sentenced to jail and forced labor camps they have never been executed solely for their faith (at least insofar as I know). In Saudi Arabia, by vast contrast, Christians are opposed on religious grounds. There is a bounty of a year’s salary for anyone who reports a Bible study. Expats involved in Bible studies are kicked out of the country (if they are Westerners) or jailed (if they are, say, Filipinos). The intensity of persecution is markedly different in these two countries.

Can that kind of persecution ever happen in the USA? Well, here’s the rub: Christians can be persecuted in these countries because in fact they are the minority. In China, persecution is lessening as Christians become more numerous (some estimate there are more Christians than members of the Communist party at this point). In Saudi Arabia they are an astronomically tiny minority of the whole country. When Christians are more numerous they are more difficult to persecute.

In addition, in most places where Christians are heavily persecuted, the population is often quite small. It’s much easier to control and persecute in small situations (e.g. Albania, North Korea, Afghanistan, etc) or small minorities (Saudi Arabia, North Africa) than in larger populations and larger numbers (China, India, Egypt–where persecution happens but not on the same level).

In the United States, Christians – or at least those who would consider themselves Christian – are a majority (60%+). And those who wouldn’t necessarily darken the door of a church on any given Sunday would likely be very annoyed with a government that tried to say they couldn’t darken a door of a church whenever they wanted to. Those who might restrict the freedom of Christians to assemble and worship (two freedoms guaranteed by the Bill of Rights) would be a very small minority. So it’s vastly improbable that this would happen.

• I’m not talking about isolated events where some local politican gets a burr in his saddle and decides to wage an isolated crusade, or where some ACLU suit gets blown out of proportion. These sorts of things happen in any society and can be dealt with by reasonable people.
• And before someone replies re school-sponsored prayer: Yes, I know school-sponsored prayers are no longer allowed–but student-led prayer groups certainly are. I don’t count that as persecution. I count it as the general outworking of not having a state-sponsored religion. And I think it’s actually a good thing, because it means the students must take responsibility for prayer, and not leave it to the teachers.

In fact, let’s go out on a limb and say: for the possibility of organized, systemic persecution for the purpose of eliminating or at least severely repressing Christians in particular to happen, what changes in our government would be required? At a bare minimum:

1. Government must (legally or illegally, but at a policy level) provide for the significant restriction of Christian churches, which implies a dramatic change in government style and power.

2. Government must have some way to enforce this policy, which includes a significant control over the police and/or armed forces (a large percentage of which is made up of Christians).

3. Existing church facilities will have to be taken over or destroyed–otherwise they would be left in disuse and would be an obvious point of flareup.

4. The country would have to go along with this for one reason or another.

Now, let’s think about this. People get riled up when Internet rumors to this effect are cast about (witness all of the rumors about the current administration outlawing guns, see snopes.com here). What would happen in the United States if any one of the first three items were about to happen in reality? Yes, that’s right: armed insurrection–and I’d bet groups like the ACLU would join with people of all religious persuasions on this one. Which means it’s unlikely to ever happen simply because it wouldn’t succeed without a dramatic change.

What kind of dramatic change might make this possible (for the budding end-times authors among us)? Now we’re moving into the arena of wildcards. Essentially what would be required is a complete change in the character of the United States brought upon by a massive event.

For example, consider:

• an asteroid impact that destroys major population centers and the rise of a dictatorial government opposed by Christians (thus triggering a crackdown on religious expression). Pat Robertson did a scenario like this in The End of the Age. So did Larry Burkett in The Illuminati
• a major terrorist attack that destroys most of the key population centers (a la the Jericho scenario, but that didn’t work out so well for the dictators)
• some kind of socialist uprising (as depicted in David Aikman’s “When the Almond Tree blossoms)
• a virulent pandemic flu that destroys much of America’s population, an emergency government decree against public assembly, again opposition by Christians, crackdown on religious expression, etc.
• ok, one has to include the Rapture scenario (a la Left Behind), in which all Christians are removed (but at that point we’re talking about the rise of the Antichrist, so this is to be expected)

But aside from these kinds of massive wildcard events, it’s just improbable that this kind of event would occur through the normal course of the way our government works. So let’s all have a reality check:

1. Yes, we need to work against the “little changes” that would restrict our freedom of religion and speech.

2. We do not need to go crazy with our rhetoric or forwarding the latest silly Internet rumor. It is significantly improbable that America as it is now would ever restrict religious freedom in a Saudi Arabian or even China way.

3. Thank God for the blessings of living in a land of freedom, where we do not need to fear oppression or secret police. (Yet.)