China as a missionary sender

There has been some talk of China as a mission sending force among missionary circles. Some time ago Peter Wagner said that “The number of Chinese overseas missionaries may be the largest [of any nationality] in the world by the year 2025.” Today there is a fairly well known initiative, “Back to Jerusalem,” where Chinese church leaders want to send thousands of missionaries out to to nations along the old Silk Road.

What is the reality of this? Could China become a substantial missionary-sending nation? Could it become the largest in the world? Some of the factors:

1. Demographics

The first and most obvious factor is the population of China. At 1.2 billion, China is the most populous nation on Earth (although by 2025 it will likely be surpassed by India). Estimates of China’s Christian population range from 7% to 10%, or from 80 million to upwards of 120 million. By contrast, the United States has some 191 million Christians in 2000. China should therefore, eventually, be able to send at least what the USA sends. The USA sends 618 missionaries per million Christians; if China were to do the same thing, they would send out some 75,000 missionaries by AD 2025. (In passing I note that the USA is by far the largest missionary-sending nation on Earth. The other “big” nations send about 20,000 to 30,000 missionaries each. By 2025 China could well be #2, or even surpass the USA, based on demographics alone.)

1. Economics

The second factors that is perhaps less obvious is China’s economy. Although it is expanding at a rapid rate, and its $0.7 billion GNP could one day be the largest in the world, it is still overall a poor nation. Per capita GNP stands at just US$600, and this is strongly divided between urban rich and rural poor. Consumer goods we take for granted are not typical in China: 2 in 10 have a radio and a tv, but only 3 in 100 have a telephone. There are an estimated 16 million computers in the whole country. What this means is that the Chinese spend more time on basic work, family, and relationships, and less time on playing with individualized technologies. Chinese believers spend more time, as a rule, talking with each other than Western believers do. I think this leads to a greater commitment.

1. Liberty and Persecution

A third factor - which works both for and against a Chinese missionary force - is the level of persecution. China is certainly not an open country. Christianity is prohibited and the state is generally hostile to it. However, levels of persecution vary by specific region. In the rural west and south, persecution is usually far less than it is in the more urban areas. Actual martyrdoms are estimated at about 17,000 per year (10% of the world’s global total of martyrs–the #2 country in the world in terms of martyrs per annum), this is actually a very small amount for the number of Christians in China. It represents less than 0.02% of all of China’s Christians. By contrast, the most heavily persecuted nation in the world (in terms of % of the country’s Christians martyred each year) is North Korea (2.1%: 10,500 of the nation’s estimated 500,000 believers), followed by Cambodia (1.1%). Arrest and detainment is far more common. This “low level” of persecution is actually more of a motivation than a deterrent; it keeps the church purified by making new converts count the cost of joining, which balances against economic growth where riches can lead to apathy.

1. Freedom to Travel

However, factors 2 and 3 do mitigate against freedom of travel, which is a large barrier in the way of a Chinese sending agency. Actually travelling to another country requires a person to have both a reason (in order to get the required government documents) and the means (for the logistical costs). Some areas are somewhat easier to get to: the border between China and Afghanistan, for example, is somewhat porous, making it less of a challenge to get into the Muslim world than to, say, go to Africa. In this last respect it makes it something of a “default position” that the Chinese will either go to the minorities of China, or the Muslims of the Silk Road. A third option is the Buddhists of Tibet, or into India, but these are more difficult. In such a situation it is easier for small “bands” of believers to be sent to the Muslim world; it is certain that sending any large numbers of believers will attract the attention of government forces (as B2J and recent publications on the church in China already have).

1. Growth

The Chinese church is strongly evangelistic and rapidly growing. Each believer, on average, will bring 6 more believers into the church. Current projections are for China to be roughly 70% evangelized by AD 2025, with Christians numbering 135 million at least. The current growth rate of 1.6% is 3 times that of the population (0.5%). The Chinese church believes in outreach and is heavily committed to it. At the same time, anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that outreach is heavily monocultural; Chinese believers generally reach out to the people around them and do not often go to the minority peoples within their own country.

1. Great Commission awareness

Another significant barrier to becoming a massive sending force is awareness of missions and the Great Commission. Remembering that there are between 80 million and 120 million believers in China, with more being added all the time, the small amount of Bible distribution is likely not keeping up with the growth in the church. Current estimates are that 4 million Bibles, 4 million New Testaments, and 5 million portions are distributed each year. It is virtually impossible to know the total number of Scriptures in circulation, but we do know that a significant percentage of believers do not own a Bible, and a minority have never seen the whole Bible; many have seen only a portion. I haven’t seen any studies (other than anecdotal evidence) on this subject, but statistics alone would suggest that, while the church is extremely evangelistic, few relate this to a commission to preach the Gospel throughout the whole world. Nonetheless, if even a small % of such a large church understands the idea of missions, it can translate to a numerically large group of missionaries sent out.

1. Training One area which is perhaps the greatest barrier of all to long-term impact is the training of potential missionaries. Working among Muslims long-term, being able to last, and seeing fruit, requires more than simple desire. Language learning, cultural sensitivity, an understanding of political and religious issues, and the ability to provide for one’s needs without an organized mission structure at home sending monthly financial support all require a major investment in training. This is an area that the Chinese church does not yet have a large infrastructure for. Fortunately this is an area that is being heavily concentrated on right now.

For these factors it seems China could very well become a large sending force by 2025. In AD 2000 there were estimated to be some 420,000 foreign missionaries. Of these, some 306,000 went to heavily-Christian countries, 103,000 to heavily-evangelized countries, and 10,000 to majority-unevangelized nations. If China were to send even 10,000 people along the Silk Road, it would represent a very small investment of people–and yet would likely make a significant difference.

Remember that the “Muslim World” (which I define as nations with a strong majority of Muslims, or where Muslims make up at least 40% of the population) numbers 52 nations with 1.2 billion people. By 2025, these countries will have 1.8 billion people. Over 40% of the Muslim world is under the age of 15; which means there are 448 million children. Less than 40% of all adults are literate. A quarter of the people have no access to health care; over half have no access to clean water. There are roughly 1,750 people for every doctor. Restrictions are great but martyrdom is actually less common here; most countries have very few Christian martyrs because there are few believers, and what believers there are, are either very secretive or expatriate Westerners who would be expelled, not killed. In the whole region, there are 256,000 churches in 4,000 denominations making roughly 4 million baptisms annually. As a whole, this area receives roughly 29,500 missionaries from other countries. Chinese believers who have some skills with which to bless Muslims, who are used to living in a land with significant restrictions, could make a big difference in such an environment - provided they are trained. If 50,000 Chinese are sent to the Muslim world, they would more than double the mission force now working there. Targeting can make all the difference in the world.