JustinLong.org

The future of urbanization

May 08, 2016

We all know the world is urbanizing, and today over 50% of the world lives in urban areas:118 But this is just the top level view.

The distribution of urban vs.

rural populations is naturally very different for different regions: Urban Populations 2015 Rural Populations 2015     And the pace of urbanization, which has been rapid in the past, has been slowing: 125 So while the number of urban dwellers is increasing, the number of rural dwellers is not significantly decreasing: Urban vs Rural 1950-2050And more urban dwellers live in “small cities” (e.g.

those under 500,000) and “barely megacities” (1 to 5 million), not the largest supercities: 129 Many of these small/medium sized urban areas are not urbanized cultures.

They have rural-quality kinship-oriented cultures as rural dwellers aggregate into these smaller areas.

All of these trends together mean we cannot abandon either strategy to focus on one. While I have seen enough to know DMM and other like-minded strategies work in both urban and rural settings, the specific tactics employed are very different (rural areas, for example, focus on households; whereas urban areas focus on affinity groups).

We will need a mix of urban and rural strategies for many decades to come!Graph/map source: UN Urbanization Prospects.